Baseball Betting Tips: How to Win at One of the Most Difficult Sports to Bet On
Major League Baseball is the most difficult sport to bet on because you can never be certain any team will win on any given day. The sport of baseball is a long-term betting game because even the worst teams can win games against anyone on any given day. For example, the Yankees could send out CC Sabathia to face the Royals at home with Luis Mendoza on the mound and lose the game. In fact, they probably will lose 1 out of 3. So how do you bet on a sport in which outcomes of games are close to random? Let’s take a look at these tips that are gold…
Tip #1: Don’t expect short-term success, have a long-term mindset
If you’re on vacation and want to throw some money down on a few baseball games, go right ahead. Just don’t get upset if you don’t win. Do it for the entertainment. But if you’re looking to win serious money betting on baseball games, it’s best to have the money to gamble on enough games to let the law of averages even itself out. The reason for that is you could conceivably bet on the favorite on the money line in 8-10 games and lose all 10. But that bad luck will even itself out over a larger series of games. So think big picture and don’t get discouraged by short-term losses.
Tip #2: Avoid betting on your favorite team
Every sports fan has a certain team they are emotionally invested in. Do everything in your power to avoid betting on that team. It’s human nature to have a bias towards something we like. So if you’re a die-hard fan of a team that is expected to be mediocre, refrain from making that tempting bet for that team to win the World Series with 150/1 odds. They’re a 150/1 odd to win it all for a reason. That reason isn’t because Vegas wants to lose money.
Tip #3: Factor in home field and pitching match-ups
Always take a look at who is on the mound for each team, where the game is being played, and the lineup that pitcher is facing. You have to do some research. Part of being a successful baseball bettor is researching stats and park factors. You can’t just look at the old-school baseball statistics such as ERA and Wins and Losses. Those are highly overrated. There are far too many advanced statistics available now to help out you project future outcomes. For example, a pitcher might have an impressive ERA but if he’s a pitcher that struggles against left-handed hitters and is facing a left-handed heavy lineup, he is likely to struggle. And some pitchers simply do not perform well on the road. So take that into consideration as well.
Tip #4: Make smart value bets
Betting for value is the way to go with baseball betting. In fact, it’s the only way to make money in the long-term. If Justin Verlander is on the mound and the Tigers are –350 against the Astros and Erik Bedard at +280, there’s no value in betting on the Tigers. You have to bet $350 just to win $100. And, remember, this is baseball. The Astros will likely win 1 out of 3. Find better value bets to make.
Tip #5: Don’t “over-bet”
One thing that destroys some baseball bettors is what we like to call “over-betting”. This is what undisciplined bettors do when they’re in a slump. They’ve lost 10-12 games in a row and want to win all of that money back on just one game, so they make a larger bet than normal. Don’t do this. Keep your bets throughout the year consistent. Like we said, baseball betting should be looked at as a long-term investment. Don’t make “over-bets” to make up for short-term losses. If you do your research and bet wisely, you’ll win in the long run.
